Why Naval tender for 57 aircrafts is just a dream.

 India since it's inception have envisioned ruling the oceans. The Indian Navy has been the leading force in the Asian region when it comes to operating aircraft carrier (AC), while the Chinese AC fleet is growing at rapid rate, it still lacks the experience in operating AC & it will be atleast a decade before Chinese can actually project their power in IOR region by possibly deploying one of their carriers here permanently.

Currently India operates 1 AC INS Vikramaditya + 1st indigenous carrier is ready to undergo sea trials & be inducted next year ( albeit limited capabilities).

India has for long now envisioned a naval force with 3 AC but as Indian Navy has been neglected for long ,with the focus of planners  being on airforce & army the Navy's share of total budget is less than 1/5th ( ~13% or so) of total defence budget.

With the current focus on Indigenous nuclear attack submarine (SSN ) project now it seems very difficult for Indian Navy to fulfill their decades old dream of acquiring 3rd carrier, atleast for a decade or two. 

Currently Indian Navy uses Mig 29 k/kub fleet from its active AC Vikramaditya and has some  40 or so Mig 29K/KUB variants.

Pic credit -Deb Rana

Pic credit - Deb rana

With some Navy officials pushing for 2nd IAC ( making 3) & with the inherent avionics and other problems combined with  low serviceability of Mig 29 there has been a push for Navy to procure 57 new naval fighter aircrafts for which 2 main competitors are Boeing Super hornet which has been recently doing ski-ramp trials in US & Other being RAFALE-M.

The problem further got more serious when despite doing successful landing and take off from INS Vikramaditya the Navy did not wish to inducted N-Tejas mk1 due to insufficient thrust due to use of GE F404 and endurance/range which were to be expected, while India now has a twin engine program of its own called TEDBF but it will only be operational by early 2030's.

These reasons combined have got a section of lobby which favour the acquisition of new naval aircrafts from abroad as they deem the Mig 29k/kub fleet as unsafe, incapable and insufficient in numbers. The problems & recent accidents of Mig 29 is facing is not helping the case of acquisition of more migs for the Navy.

Now there are certain reasons , in my opinion  which make it not feasible for Indian Navy to acquire these 57 new fighters, some of them are

• The plans for 3rd aircraft carrier do not seem to be materialising and even if by some miracle Navy finds funds to start work on IAC-II even by 2025, the carrier will not be operational before late 2030's and by that time TEDBF would be ready.

• For the future fleet of 2 AC Navy has sufficient Mig 29 to distribute between 2 carriers & if there is a need for more fighters it can easily be met by ordering 8-12 N-Tejas mk1 fighters which can be utilised as CAP fighters for defence of fleet, reducing the flying time of Mig 29 K boosting their availability.

• the simplest reason is that Navy doesn't even have funds to acquire 57 fighters even if it magically somehow gets fund for 3rd carrier. A naval fighter like Super Hornet or Rafale M with all bells & whistleslile weapons, service & spares and training simulator , infrastructure etc will cost over 200 million USD each. Even if we take the cost at just 200 million USD each the cost of 57 will cost over 11 billion USD & with the state of Navy and the budget share it gets, I don't think it's economically possible even if we distribute the cost into multiple years.

• Another major reason is that Navy has a long wishlist of items or assets it wishes to procure. Some small some big ticket purchases for eg minesweepers, NUH, NMRH, heavyweight torpedoes, P-75I submarine, SSN & successor of Vishakhapatnam class destroyers being just some of them. Even with marginal boost,  Navy's budget doesn't allow this procurement or even IAC-II at all.

• If Navy somehow decides to purchase 57 fighters then the existence of the TEDBF project altogether will come under serious doubts, there will be no reason for Navy to pursue the TEDBF & as it will eat into the order size of TEDBF with costs of future ( if any) TEDBF will rise ( economies of scale).

The best solution, at the moment is for Navy to focus it's limited budget into acquisition of other important assets and invest in R&D, TEDBF is a low hanging fruit & can be realised in less than a decade if supported well, importing a foreign fighter will not just be uneconomical but also catastrophic towards indigenous programs. If there is need to make up numbers then the best way would be ordering 8-12 N-Tejas which will reduce strain of the remaining Mig 29 fleet.

Pic credit -DEB RANA 

-HITESH ADHIKARI

DEFENCEGLOBE